Texas
8.0 GW of commercial solar potential. 7.5 GW still untapped.
Across 37,000 commercial rooftops in Austin and San Antonio, Texas has two of the most utility-supportive C&I solar markets in the country — and the curve is barely off the floor.
Texas runs on ERCOT — a deregulated grid where most commercial operators buy power on the open market and face rates that move with wholesale prices. But Austin and San Antonio sit outside that dynamic in one important way: both cities are served by municipally-owned utilities. Austin Energy and CPS Energy are city-owned, accountable to elected councils, and have each built active commercial rooftop solar programs — performance-based incentives, standard offer arrangements, rebates for small businesses and nonprofits — that no investor-owned Texas utility matches. The policy infrastructure for C&I solar here is genuinely different from the rest of the state.
At 2.2% adoption across 37,000 commercial rooftops, this is an early-stage market by any measure. The economics work — high summer irradiance, daytime commercial loads that align well with generation, and electricity prices that have risen sharply since 2020 — and the utility programs lower the first-cost barrier. The question isn't whether adoption will move; the programs and economics both point toward it. The question is which segments and which utility territory will lead the next phase, and how fast the curve converts from its current near-flat shape into the exponential takeoff that characterizes a market beginning to move.
The national picture
The adoption curve across Austin and San Antonio is essentially flat. From the smallest rooftops below 5,000 ft² to the largest above 100,000 ft², adoption runs from under 1% at the bottom to just over 7% at the top — the shape of a market in Stage 1 takeoff, where the biggest rooftops are leading but haven't yet pulled far enough ahead to create clear separation between segments. The curve is beginning to slope, but it hasn't bent yet. This is the earliest readable signal: the large rooftops are moving first, as they always do, because the system economics are strongest there.
One detail is worth reading closely: in Austin, the largest segment (above 100,000 ft²) shows 7.4% adoption — marginally lower than the 50,000–100,000 ft² band at 8.3%. That minor inversion at the top is consistent with a market where the very largest rooftops — distribution centers, big-box retail, major campuses — have already been worked selectively, while the band just below them is still in active outbound. The curve hasn't flattened at the top because the top has matured; it's a sign of uneven early-stage penetration.
San Antonio's curve runs about 0.5–1 percentage point below Austin's across every segment. The gap is modest but consistent. With 21,000 rooftops to Austin's 16,000, San Antonio is the larger market by count — and with 4.1 GW untapped it carries the larger absolute opportunity. The market here is earlier in its move, which is either a risk or a window depending on whether the operator is looking for proven traction or runway.
Regional breakdown
Austin
↑ topAustin's 16,000 commercial rooftops span Travis and Williamson counties, serving a dense mix of tech campuses, retail, light industrial, and healthcare. Adoption sits at 2.6% — marginally ahead of San Antonio — with the 50,000–100,000 ft² band leading at 8.3%. Austin Energy's commercial program suite is the strongest structural driver here: the Performance-Based Incentive, Value of Solar tariff, and Solar Standard Offer program together make the financial case across multiple ownership structures, from direct ownership to roof-lease arrangements with third-party developers. The 2025 Standard Offer program's first completed project — and Austin Energy's $7.3M FY26 commercial solar incentive allocation — signal that the utility is actively pulling the market rather than waiting for developers to come to it. The curve is in early takeoff; Austin has the program infrastructure to accelerate it.
San Antonio
↑ topSan Antonio is the larger market — 21,000 rooftops, 4.1 GW untapped — and the earlier one. Adoption is at 2.0%, with the curve tracking Austin's by half a step. CPS Energy is the nation's largest municipally-owned utility, and its commercial rebate program (up to $0.60/W for qualifying projects, capped at $80,000) remains active for small businesses, schools, and nonprofits, alongside the SolarHostSA roof-leasing arrangement for properties that prefer no upfront cost. The city's electricity rates have risen 32% since 2020, sharpening the self-consumption case for any commercial operator with daytime load. San Antonio's curve will follow Austin's with a lag; the rooftop count and untapped GW make it the higher-volume opportunity of the two.
Where the next large opportunity is
The combined 7.5 GW untapped headline is real, but the more useful frame is where in each market the opportunity is most actionable right now.
San Antonio carries the larger pool: 4.1 GW untapped across 21,000 rooftops at 2.0% adoption. It's the earlier-stage market, which means more of the curve is still ahead. The 25,000–100,000 ft² band — mid-to-large commercial buildings, distribution, hospitality, retail — is the active frontier. Adoption in that band runs 5–6% in San Antonio, enough to show the economics are proving out, not so far along that the easy picks are gone. This is where outbound effort returns the most.
Austin offers 3.4 GW untapped at slightly higher adoption (2.6%), with a stronger utility program tailored explicitly to developer and property-owner participation. The Standard Offer program structure — where commercial rooftops generate income for property owners rather than requiring them to own and operate a system — is a meaningful demand-creation tool that opens buildings otherwise too complicated to approach under a standard ownership model. For operators willing to work the program, Austin's policy environment actively converts rooftops that would otherwise stall in a typical market.
In both territories, the smallest segment (under 5,000 ft²) shows adoption below 1.5%. This isn't a near-term target — small rooftops rarely lead in early-stage markets, and the utility programs here are structured around commercial system sizes that justify the per-project effort. The opportunity concentrates in the 12,500–100,000 ft² range: large enough to produce real capacity per project, early enough that most of the segment is unconverted, and well within the program parameters that both utilities actively incentivize.
What's driving adoption
The structural driver in both territories is the same: municipally-owned utilities with explicit commercial solar programs. Austin Energy's Performance-Based Incentive pays commercial customers over five years based on output; its Solar Standard Offer program compensates property owners for hosting community solar arrays, separating the investment decision from the energy economics for landlords with multi-tenant buildings or limited on-site load. CPS Energy's commercial rebate program (up to $0.60/W for qualifying projects) targets small businesses, schools, and nonprofits directly, with expedited permitting and a registered contractor network managing applications. Both programs layer on top of the federal ITC, improving project economics at the margin.
The secondary driver is electricity price exposure. CPS Energy rates have risen 32% since 2020, driven by gas fuel costs, Winter Storm Uri debt recovery, and infrastructure investment — and further increases are expected. Austin Energy's rates have moved similarly. For any commercial operator with significant daytime load, the self-consumption case has become materially stronger over the past four years. That trend is structural, not cyclical: both utilities face the same capital and fuel cost pressures, and neither has a path to lower rates without significant grid changes. The payback math is getting better each year the curve doesn't move.
Key takeaways
- Austin and San Antonio together hold 8.0 GW of C&I solar potential — 7.5 GW untapped at 2.2% adoption, the signature of a market in early takeoff, not yet broadening.
- Both cities are served by municipally-owned utilities (Austin Energy and CPS Energy) with active commercial solar incentive programs, a structural advantage over the deregulated rest of Texas.
- San Antonio is the larger market by rooftop count (21,000) and untapped capacity (4.1 GW); Austin is marginally ahead on adoption (2.6% vs 2.0%) with the more developed utility program infrastructure.
- The 12,500–100,000 ft² segment range is the active frontier in both territories — adoption of 3–8%, system sizes that justify per-project effort, and programs structured to incentivize exactly this scale.
- Rising electricity rates at both utilities (CPS up 32% since 2020) are compressing payback periods each year the rooftops remain unconverted — the economics are improving without any change in solar costs.
Methodology
This breakdown comes from Planno’s national scan of commercial and industrial rooftops, fused with ownership, energy, and contact intelligence per building. The data was compiled in a recent scan. See how the platform works →
Frequently asked questions
How does Planno identify commercial rooftops?
Planno's geospatial AI scans high-resolution satellite imagery across the entire country and identifies every commercial and industrial rooftop above a minimum size threshold. The model is trained on real C&I assets and validated by solar developers.
How current is this data?
The most recent national scan was compiled in a recent scan. Figures are refreshed as new scans are run.
Where is the next large untapped opportunity in Texas?
San Antonio holds the larger absolute opportunity: 4.1 GW untapped across 21,000 rooftops at 2.0% adoption, with the 25,000–100,000 ft² mid-to-large commercial band showing 5–6% adoption — early enough that most of the segment is still unconverted. Austin offers 3.4 GW untapped with a stronger utility program structure, including the Solar Standard Offer arrangement that opens multi-tenant and low-load buildings to third-party developer participation. In both territories, the 12,500–100,000 ft² range concentrates the near-term opportunity: large enough to produce real capacity per project, well within the parameters both utilities actively incentivize.
What's driving commercial solar adoption in Texas right now?
Municipally-owned utilities with active commercial solar programs: Austin Energy's Performance-Based Incentive and Solar Standard Offer program, and CPS Energy's commercial rebate (up to $0.60/W for qualifying projects). Both layer on top of the federal ITC. The structural driver is rising electricity prices — CPS Energy rates up 32% since 2020, Austin Energy moving similarly — which shorten payback on self-consumption systems each year the curve doesn't move.
