What We Learned from a Week in South Africa 2026

South Africa’s solar market is changing, but not in obvious ways. There are no big announcements or dramatic policy shifts driving it. Instead, the transformation is happening through small adjustments in how companies approach projects, how clients make decisions, and how value is defined. Spending time on the ground makes these changes easier to spot. Over the past week, we met with solar developers operating at different scales, each navigating the same underlying transition. What we observed points to a market moving away from urgency and toward structure, with implications that go well beyond individual projects.

Load Shedding No Longer Sets the Agenda

For most commercial and industrial players, load shedding has faded into the background. Power supply across most metropolitan and industrial areas has remained stable long enough to change behaviour. Solar is no longer justified primarily as an operational safeguard. That change alone alters how projects are discussed, approved, and sized. The urgency that once dominated boardroom discussions has softened, and decisions now unfold with more time, more scrutiny, and more comparison. This is not a slowdown, but instead is a reset of priorities, and it marks the end of a phase that shaped the market for the last few years.

Electricity Prices Take Center Stage

With stability restored, attention has shifted to cost. Electricity prices are hiking, and this reality is now shaping solar adoption more than reliability concerns. Solar is increasingly treated as a financial instrument, a hedge against rising prices, rather than an insurance policy. CFOs are more involved, payback periods are scrutinized, and system design is optimized around long-term operating costs. The tone of discussions has changed accordingly, and projects move forward when they make economic sense on paper, not because they promise continuity of business during outages. This shift is quiet but deep, and it is redefining how value is articulated and understood.

A Market in Transition During 2025

Many solar companies described 2025 as uneven. The first half felt slow, sometimes uncomfortably so. Activity returned in the second half, but with a different touch. This pattern reflects a market adjusting to a new logic rather than losing its momentum. Clients, rooftop owners, needed time to recalibrate expectations, and solar developers had to refine their positioning. Old arguments lost relevance, while new ones had not yet fully landed. Transition years often feel confusing when experienced from within, but in hindsight, they usually mark the moment when a market leaves one identity behind and begins shaping the next.

The Rise of Tender Led Procurement

Solar procurement is increasingly moving toward tenders, often introduced by external consultants. Processes that were once handled directly between solar developers and clients are becoming more formal, more competitive, and noticeably less personal. For many solar companies, this translates into longer sales cycles, tighter margins, and significant time spent on bids that rarely convert into real projects. Decisions are increasingly driven by price, sometimes at the expense of technical depth and execution quality. Several teams highlighted how effort is now spread across multiple tenders with unclear outcomes, creating a market that feels busier, but not necessarily healthier.

Residential Spillover into C&I Segment

As residential demand cooled, many residential installers moved upstream into small C&I projects. This influx has reshaped that segment quickly. Pricing has become more aggressive, often reflecting residential economics rather than commercial realities. In parallel, execution risks have surfaced, particularly on more complex sites. For clients, this creates noise and uncertainty. For experienced solar developers, it raises the bar on differentiation. Markets absorb new entrants in waves, and this one is still settling. Over time, experience will matter more than speed, but the adjustment period is rarely smooth for any of the parties involved.

When Referrals Stop Being Enough

For years, many established players grew comfortably through referrals and personal networks. That approach is now under strain. Competition has intensified, both from local newcomers and international groups entering the market, and waiting for opportunities to arrive is no longer a viable strategy. Companies are beginning to invest in more structured active prospecting, clearer market coverage, and better prioritization. This shift is not trivial, as it demands new tools, new habits, and often a change in mindset. Growth becomes intentional rather than incidental. Those who adapt early gain clarity. But those who hesitate feel the pressure first.

A Market Far from Saturated

Despite the tougher environment, South Africa’s C&I solar market remains underpenetrated. Solar adoption levels sit around 7% to 8% nationally, rising to roughly 10% to 12% in the most active metropolitan areas. Compared to several European markets, the headroom is still significant. The perception of saturation stems from increased competition and changing deal dynamics, not from exhausted demand. In absolute terms, the opportunity ahead remains substantial. What has changed is the path to capturing it. Scale will come through persistence and precision, not volume, and through understanding where effort truly converts into outcomes.

Being inside a market makes change harder to see. You adapt to it daily, you normalize it. From the outside, patterns stand out more clearly. Working across multiple geographies gives us that perspective. We see markets in snapshots, connect signals between countries, and recognize familiar phases as they emerge. Sometimes these shifts feel obvious to local players, but they only come into focus once someone steps in, listens, and reflects them back. That is the value of these trips. Not prediction, but perspective. South Africa is entering a new phase, and recognizing it early matters.